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PETALING JAYA: Capital A Bhd, formerly AirAsia Group Bhd, is expected to break even by the third-quarter of 2023, supported by the easing jet fuel prices, higher fares and more aircraft returning to service, says Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) Research.
After a volatile financial year 2022 (FY22) due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the research house expects jet fuel prices to ease to an average of US$110 (RM481) per barrel in FY23 from US$125 (RM547) per barrel in FY22.“This is due to the Brent crude oil prices which have eased to below US$100 (RM438) per barrel as the hitherto high prices had led to demand destruction. The jet fuel – Brent crude oil crack spreads at US$30 (RM131.30) per barrel – are also easing as refining capacity recovers,” said the research house in a note to clients.
While the high jet fuel prices from 1Q22 may have driven Capital A to raise its fares, Maybank IB Research said: “We understand that fares remain high as competitors cut capacity.
“In Malaysia, where Capital A traditionally derives most of its profits from, there are now 8% fewer planes relative to pre-Covid levels.”,
This is coupled with Capital A returning to service its entire fleet of about 200 aircraft by end-2023 (103: end-3Q22 and 140:end-4Q22).
Maybank IB Research has also tweaked Capital A’s FY22/FY23 core net loss estimates wider by RM30mil to RM33mil on minor housekeeping.
“That said, we lift our estimated FY24 core net profit by RM84mil to account for the resumption of Malaysia AirAsia and Philippines AirAsia’s service to and from China at pre-Covid levels,” it added.
However, the research house did not account for the resumption of Thai AirAsia’s service to and from China at pre-Covid levels as it cut its fleet size from 63 as at end-2019 to 53 currently.
Maybank IB Research, which has a “buy” call on the stock, has raised its target price to 90 sen from 84 sen previously.